The Economic Outlook Through 1Q 2024
Published Wednesday, April 19, 2023 at: 9:08 PM EDT
The forecast for the United States is always a subject for doom and gloomers, and lately the headlines indeed do seem moribund: inflation, Russia, China, an 800% increase in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark lending rate since March 2022, and a banking system under stress. Amid a climate of political derision, fear about the dollar’s role as the world’s most trusted currency, and other fears making news, the 60 economists surveyed in early April see mild contraction ahead, but no recession.
Crisis, risk, and unexpected bad events are an unrelenting constant in a world that is slowly making progress. It’s important that 60 leading economists in early April surveyed by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) are not predicting a recession. Knowing what that means to your investments requires perspective. To be clear, the growth of the economy drives returns on stocks, bonds, and other investments. For the record:
For the current quarter, which ends June 30, 2023, the consensus forecast of economists surveyed by WSJ is for +1.7% growth of the economy.
The average forecast of the economists surveyed is for a growth rate of +0.6% in the third quarter growth of 2023, followed by a -.25% contraction.
The consensus of economic experts polled quarterly by The Journal is for the nation’s gross domestic product to grow +.16% and +0.9% in, respectively, the final quarter of 2023 and first quarter of 2024.
The outlook is not for strong growth, but it is also not bleak. The past does not always indicate what the future may hold. But current economic problems are not unprecedented, and the U.S. system of capitalism grew through it all. For investors, sorting through the torrent of financial news bombarding us all the time is not easy.
In the roaring social media age of the 2020s, financial news is programmed to grab your attention but otherwise usually of little value. Meanwhile, traditional financial news outlets seem inadequate -- not personalized, wizened, or trustworthy, and leaving you to figure out things.
An important service we provide is education. In the form of articles like this or other media, we continually reinforce facts from authoritative sources about investing.
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Nothing contained herein is to be considered a solicitation, research material, an investment recommendation, or advice of any kind, and it is subject to change without notice. Any investments or strategies referenced herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Product suitability must be independently determined for each individual investor. Tax advice always depends on your particular personal situation and preferences. You should consult the appropriate financial professional regarding your specific circumstances. The material represents an assessment of financial, economic and tax law at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete, and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. This article was written by a professional financial journalist for Advisor Products and is not intended as legal or investment advice.
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